Pike Research Report Projects Global Natural Gas Vehicle Fleet to 17 Million by 2015

Automakers will get 17 million natural gas vehicles (NGVs) on the road by 2015 according to a study by Pike Research. The research firm calculated its estimate based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% with a global inventory of 9.7 million units in 2008. India was determined by Pike Research to be the highest growth area with a CAGR of 18.7%. The NGV market envisioned in this report will be dominated by emerging economies like Argentina and Brazil along with Iran and Pakistan.

The Pike Research report found that consumers are concerned ultimately with economics, environmental impact, availability and energy security when choosing NGVs. Consumers interviewed by researchers stated that natural gas would need to consistently cost less than gasoline to make their purchases worthwhile. The lower emissions produced by NGVs motivate consumers to look at these vehicles over traditional cars and trucks. Pike Research found that consumers are looking closely at the availability of models as well as fueling stations and repair shops when considering NGVs. The report found that drivers in the Midwest, South and Southwest consider natural gas as a means of eliminating dependence on foreign oil.

American adoption of NGV models is largely restricted to corporations, state government and federal agencies at present. Pike Research found that this trend is likely to continue with 89% of NGV sales projected to fleet buyers in 2015. The 17.7% CAGR used by Pike Research sounds promising but only amounts to 31,347 NGVs on American roads by 2015.

We can build off Pike Research’s findings to determine what the NGV market for passenger vehicles will look like in Europe and North America. European Union restrictions on carbon emissions over the next decade mean that demand should increase for NGVs. While Europeans may look to NGVs as viable alternatives, Americans are far more focused on fuel mileage than emissions in the next generation of vehicles. This concern encourages hybrid adoption rather than natural gas, electric and even all-ethanol vehicles from being adopted nationwide. The four criteria cited by Pike Research may create a perfect storm in emerging economies but the United States, European Union and other countries should look to more dynamic transportation systems. NGVs may hit big by 2015 but natural gas should not be the next oil boom; rather, natural gas should be used with solar, electric, ethanol and other fuel sources in a multi-platform system.